FWIW - Winning The War on Terror, Part 1

"Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it". Wise words, those. We haven't learned from our ignominious defeat in Viet Nam 30 years ago. America should have learned that a military action not supported by the majority of the populace cannot be 'won', no matter how much the President talks about "Victory".
Just this past week, the Iraq Study Group ("ISG") published it's report on the Iraq quagmire and the dilemma that arose from an ill-considered war of choice by the President and the chicken hawks (aka Neocons) that surrounded him; sold to the American people through an elaborate mechanism of faulty intelligence, outright lies and good old-fashioned fearmongering.
It would seem that the President would have gotten the message from the 'thumpin' the Republican party suffered at the polls in November. Call it "Reality Check #1". The ISG report should have been taken as "Reality Check #2". Yet, just yesterday, the President continued to talk of 'Victory' in a military frame of reference. Bush 41 was turned out of office in large part due to a wide public perception that he "just doesn't get it". Bush 43 will lead the Republican Party to an even larger repudiation at the polls in 2008 if he and his sympathizers "don't get it".
My instincts tell me that, lacking any substantial changes in the ground situation in Iraq in 2007, the Democrats may be poised to take the Presidency as well as control of both houses of Congress in 2008. But, I digress.
We are, after all, looking at the Iraq conflict through a larger prism, one of a so-called "War On Terror". And it was the Administration itself that coined the phrase in it's greater strategy to circumvent Congressional oversight and thus appropriate to the Executive Branch power to make war on any adversary it chose. Thus was Congress deprived of it's responsibility under the U.S. Constitution (Article 1, Sec. 8) .."to Declare and Make War..", a responsibility designed by the framers of the Constitution to insure that disasters like Iraq could not happen.
We'll leave discussion of the best exit strategy from Iraq to our next post.
We wish to talk now about how we can defang the tiger of Islamic radicalism; at what cost, both in monetary and human references.
It helps if we understand a few basics about the dynamics between Western Civilization and the Middle East. In a nutshell, the Middle East is societally based upon Tribalism, that is to say that the greater allegiance is to the tribe. In Western Civilization, tribes are subordinate to the needs of the greater Society. Without becoming overly simplistic, this is why Civilization is the antithesis of Tribalism. We in the West are prepared to make some accomodation to the dictums of 'Society', as we perceive it for the purpose of an acknowledged 'greater good'. Under Tribalism, our 'Tribe' is the all-important nexus; where our 'tribe' prevails, we prevail. Certainly, tribes (and thus 'Tribalism') have been around longer than Western Civilization. And, thus lies the conflict that has existed through all of Modern Times.
When oil was discovered in the Middle East in the 20th Century, tribal leaders came into possesion of wealth previously unimaginable. The tribe of Saud could not believe all of the material splendor that was theirs simply by virtue of a black goo pumped out from under the sands at their feet! And so it has been to this day. The greatest riches, in tribalistic design, go to those at the head of the tribe, the smallest crumbs fall of the table to those not in favor, those farthest from the top.
Now, as the global population hurtles past 6 billion (we in the USA just celebrated our 300 millionth citizen), energy needs of our people increase geometrically. Yet, there is only a finite supply of carbon-based (oil) energy. There were only so many carbon-based organisms roaming the planet that far back in our history to decompose into what we now know as petroleum and petroleum by-products. Through chemistry, we may continue to refine this stuff, breaking it apart and re-combining it in different form, but ultimately, the inside of earth's mantle will surrender up it's last drop of oil. The law of supply and demand is one of the most immutable, meaning that oil prices can only go up long term as increasing population competes for lesser and lesser amounts of this resource.
This all fits in with my strategy for prevailing against those who seek the extinction of Western Civilization.
This 'jihad', this struggle, came to light on our shores with the first bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993. Ultimately, Sheik Abdel Rahman (The Blind Sheik) was convicted and sentenced for his part in masterminding the bombing. Blithely unaware of the hatred seething against the United States in the Arab middle east, we were caught completely by surprise. By now, we know better.
Here's how it works: When you fill your vehicle with gasoline, ultimately, your 'petrodollars' flow to the middle east through OPEC. From there, they go right to the top of the tribes, like the Saudis, where they build great, ornate palaces for their leaders. Then, like water, ever flowing downhill, these dollars flow to lesser leaders, who bestow these petrodollars on people who will donate them to the Islamic "charities". Indeed, many leaders may fund these "charities" believing that they help the impoverished, not knowing the ultimate destination of these funds. These "charities" are nothing more than a conduit to funnel money to the thousands of madrassas found in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Somalia, Indonesia and the Phillipines. (There are other locales where these madrassas are located, but these are the most virulent.) The madrassas are the schools where the most extreme hatred for the West is inculcated daily in children bereft of any hope except to die as a martyr and have an afterlife in 'Paradise'.
Nothing in the above scenario changes as long as our energy policy is oil-dependent. As consumer of 25% of the planet's oil resources, there is no way that producing more oil at home can be a viable solution. That's where the U.S. has a unique advantage.
Hydrogen (fuel cell) based energy production has the greatest potential cost v benefit ratio of all of the alternative energy forms. Way above coal (carbon-based, after all), and nuclear (radiation hazards). Wind and solar are promising, but still need to overcome scalability issues (how do you propose to build enough to achieve cost benefit savings). Much of hydrogen technology is already text-based knowledge. A massive R & D emphasis, much like what went into the moon landing mission of the 1960's, could put fuel-cell technology into every day practical application. Imagine the possibilities! Instead of using a finite resource (until it's all gone, as carbon-based fuels), we can utilize a resource, water (which comprises 2/3's of the earth's surface and which is renewed daily through the sun-driven evaporation/rain/snow cycle. as old as the planet itself).
Indeed, working alongside countries like China and India to the benefit of all of our citizens, instead of competing against them for ever more scarce resources, it could be possible to remake international geopolitics! Even now, China is becoming aware of the costs of hyper-industrialization and is seeking to remedy an air pollution problem in it's major cities that grows at an alarming rate. For leaders of vision who can outline a future that is more energy secure for all citizens, the prospects are virtually limitless.
As with any new technology, American ingenuity and free market capitalism hold a possibility for new branches of entrepreneurship in energy generation and transmittal. Where once the benefits of an industrial society made quality of life better for untold numbers of Americans, isn't it possible that a renaissance of entrepreneurship could do likewise for upcoming generations? Cooperation between countries like the United States and China and India have promise for the peoples of all these lands.
We've saved the best for last. By depriving the Middle East of the petrodollars that have been used ultimately to kill Westerners, we enhance our own possibility of survival in the world of tomorrow.

Today is December 10th, 2006; 770 days left for the Bush administration.